Why Russia, China, and Germany all gained in status last year

This prominent poaster (like every superforecaster, a body compositional White) recently made this assertion:

Andreas H. @AH23923011

Countries that lost in status this year: - Russia (obviously) - China (also kind of obvious... the Chinese "growth miracle" seems to have come to an end, and it now looks more likely that China won't pass the US to become the global hegemon). - Germany (also obvious).

All this is nonsense from start to finish.

Before last year, a common refrain among American pundits was that Russia was a “gas station masquerading as a country”. Nobody says that anymore. Everyone agrees Russia can turn Finland into dust without nukes. Nobody is trying to compare Russia’s accomplishments in Ukraine with those of Saudi Arabia in Yemen. Russia has, unlike the Saudis, shown that it is capable of executing a war without the slightest foreign help. Russian mercenaries also proved themselves essential players in the wars of the world’s most fertile continent -in Mali, in the Central African Republic, and in Ethiopia. Yes, the war in Ukraine seems remarkably similar in its characteristics to Stalin’s war in Finland -but nobody except hacks calls that a loss. The war also showed a characteristic highly favorable to Russia -in a time requiring another fossil fuel boom, Russia cannot be given the Iran treatment. Russia, beyond anyone’s doubts, has shown it is capable of executing the Ledeen Doctrine -only without the U.S. doing so against Iraq. It is, as I said just before the war, the equivalent of the U.S. doing so against Great Britain.

As for China, what is there to say? Putin himself was filmed speaking Mandarin to the General Secretary. China, like Australia, Uruguay, Mongolia, Vietnam, Thailand, and New Zealand, made a remarkably graceful exit from Zero COVID, with the vast majority of the population vaccinated with its own vaccines. Without China’s green light, there was also never a possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has solidified the Russia-China relationship. And the end of Zero COVID also made a giant opening to Russia in the resurrection of border smuggling. The lockdowns this year were clear gateways to a boosting of the fertility rate via food shortage and preparations for the next war against South Korea -and Russia, more than any other country on Earth, has taught the Chinese valuable lessons in launching an offensive war. If anything, the past year has shown China to be the best governed country in the world.

As for Germany -if anything, the past year showed a basic fact: Germany controls Russia. Without E.U. consumption of Russian fossil fuels -something which could only be done if backed by Germany- Russia would not be able to finance the Ukrainian war -period. The past year also showed it is completely impossible for the U.S. to advance its foreign policy without the assent of the German Bundestag -and luckily for Russia, the chancellor is a bicam who speaks bad English.