When Zero COVID makes sense
Simple rule: the deadlier the pandemic and the more compliant the population, the more Zero COVID makes sense. Thus, before vaccines, Zero COVID made the most sense in East Asia (compare China’s and India’s death toll) and the least sense in the more poorly governed parts of Sub-Saharan Africa (Uganda and Zimbabwe supposedly had Zero COVID for lengthy periods). During the pandemic, it made the least sense in places like Israel pre-Delta. Delta, which resulted in less vaccine effectiveness and was deadlier than the strain common in 2020, made a stronger case for Zero COVID, boosters, which were highly effective against Delta, resulted in the case for Zero COVID becoming weaker. Currently, China does not have great vaccines or a high rate of booster doses (meaning an end to Zero COVID there would be highly deadly), and has a highly compliant population, meaning Zero COVID there is highly sustainable and desirable. The case for Zero COVID is weaker in Singapore, which has better vaccines. India has a less compliant population, meaning zero COVID was far less likely to be sustainable there if it was ever attempted to be implemented. Omicron boosts the case for Zero COVID, as its high speed of spread increases the chances of a deadlier pandemic, an Omicron vaccine would diminish it. A milder COVID variant becoming dominant would obviously reduce the desirability of Zero COVID.