Obama-Trump voters were and are conservative
There is a certain mythology about Trump voters/Obama-Trump voters, namely, that they are “populist” rather than just extremely out of step with the Democratic Party on both economic and social issues.
Now, on Twitter, Tanner Greer, a journalist, wrote:
“The Trump base *is* in favor of marijuana legalization--as well as gay marriage, and porn as well. There is a lot of delusion on these topics among the post liberal intelligentsia.”
Now, Tanner Greer is usually a smart guy, but, like many of his takes, he is 180 degrees away from the truth. Let us look at the data:
First, let’s look at the presidential election results:
Clearly the Donald’s coalition was much more “populist” than that of Romney.
It is a dictum that the top quartile in America by income is non-ideological and non-populist, the second quartile is ideological and non-populist, the third quartile is both ideological and populist, while the bottom quartile (which should not be allowed to vote) has no ideology whatsoever, but is populist in the stupidest way. Needless to say, my sympathies lie with the top quartile, even though this is the quartile most subject to the “midwit trap” (75th-95th percentile IQ). Trump in Maine improved among the bottom two quartiles and declined in the first. But the fact of the matter is that, contrary to Marxist proclamations, the working class in America is a reactionary force. This was the case even before Trump, and is definitely the case after him.
First, let’s look at some social issues:
Clearly a majority of Obama-Trump voters did not support the legalization of marijuana.
Wait, isn’t this the Trump 2016 map…? but it’s from 2012. So much for Trump’s moderation on homosexuality -would it have looked any different if he hadn’t moderated? No, except he might have lost the state by a larger margin.
Clearly, Obama-Trump voters were very out of step with the Democratic Party on gun control.
Clearly, Obama-Trump voters were not meaningfully “individualist”, except on guns. They were meaningfully conservative -even in 2012, there was no reason for them to be in the Democratic Party at all.
Now, let’s look at economic issues:
Maine voted substantially more leftwing on economic issues than on social issues. But that wasn’t because leftwing stances on economic issues were “populist”, but because they were popular. Obama’s coalition looks substantially more “populist” than that of minimum wage supporters, and far, far more “populist” than that of Medicaid expansion supporters. In both Somerset and Penobscot counties, the minimum wage lost by 6.2 points, while Obama won both by 2-3. Medicaid expansion lost by large margins in both Somerset and Aroostook counties, which went for Obama.
The conclusion one should draw is that party switchers tended to have been already at odds with their party before their switch and (this has been proven) become on average substantially more at odds with their old party after their switch. Marijuana and same-sex marriage win majorities among the Democratic base, not the Republican. Neither Obama-Trump voters or Trump voters as a whole were meaningfully “egalitarian” or “individualist”, nor are they now. They were and are meaningfully conservative.